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UPDATED Sep. 4, 2024, at 12:48 PM
538 uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes.
Harris wins 55 times out of 100
in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election.
Trump wins 44 times out of 100.
There is a less than 1-in-100 chance of no Electoral College winner.
Harris
Trump
No winner
+
simulations
Harris wins
Trump wins
Electoral vote margin
What are the latest national polls influencing the forecast?
We adjust polls for house effects, mode, partisanship, voter likelihood and third parties and weight them based on their firm’s 538 pollster rating and how often it polls.
| Dates | Pollster Sponsor | 538 Pollster Rating | Result | Net result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 1-3 | 2.9 | Harris 47% 45% Trump | Harris +2 | |
| Aug.25-Sept.2 | No rating | Harris 51% 49% Trump | Harris +2 | |
| Aug. 28-30 | 1.8 | Harris 47% 43% Trump | Harris +4 | |
| Aug. 29 | 1.8 | Harris 44% 42% Trump | Harris +2 | |
| Aug. 25-29 | No rating | Harris 50% 44% Trump | Harris +6 | |
| Aug. 26-28 | 2.3 | Harris 51% 48% Trump | Harris +3 | |
| Aug. 24-28 | No rating | Harris 47% 45% Trump | Harris +2 | |
| Aug. 25-28 | 2.9 | Harris 48% 43% Trump | Harris +5 | |
| Aug. 23-28 | 1.6 | Harris 51% 45% Trump | Harris +6 | |
| Aug. 23-28 | 1.6 | Harris 48% 41% Trump | Harris +7 |
Dates
Pollster
Sponsor
538 Pollster Rating
47%
45%
Harris +2
51%
49%
Harris +2
47%
43%
Harris +4
44%
42%
Harris +2
50%
44%
Harris +6
51%
48%
Harris +3
47%
45%
Harris +2
48%
43%
Harris +5
51%
45%
Harris +6
48%
41%
Harris +7
Latest updates
LAST UPDATED Sept. 3
Vice President Kamala Harris continues to lead former President Donald Trump in national polls and in the swing states, but her margin has slipped modestly over the last two weeks. On Aug. 23, our polling average had Harris up on Trump by 3.7 percentage points. Her margin today is a comparatively lower +3.2. As the polls have gotten closer, Harris’s probability of victory in our election model has also slipped, from 60-in-100 last week to 56-in-100 today.
National polls released over the weekend showed a mostly steady race versus two weeks ago. An ABC News/Ipsos poll came in at Harris +6 among likely voters, the same result as the last poll from ABC and Ipsos. But state polls showed Trump gaining between a quarter and half a point on margin, on average. However the new polls were mostly from partisan firms or those with a lower 538 pollster rating, which receive a low weight in our forecast. Our model will react stronger to better-rated surveys released in the coming days/weeks.
At the same time, Harris has gained ground in our fundamentals model over the last week. Despite a somewhat poor few weeks of new economic data, our forecast of the political fundamentals has improved for Democrats as President Joe Biden’s approval rating has risen (now at the highest level since early 2023). But with fewer days left in the cycle for polls to change, our model will put less and less weight on these indicators as we approach November.
538’s forecast is based on a combination of polls and campaign “fundamentals,” such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency. It’s not meant to “call” a winner, but rather to give you a sense of how likely each candidate is to win. Check out our methodology to learn exactly how we calculate these probabilities.
—G. Elliott Morris
How has the forecast changed over time?
The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get new data. Uncertainty will decrease as we get closer to Election Day.
We forecast the popular vote only for candidates polling at 5 percent or higher nationally, polling at 10 percent or higher in at least one state or who are on the ballot in almost every state. Since Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s withdrawal, only Harris and Trump meet these criteria, so we are effectively forecasting the two-way popular vote between Democrats and Republicans.
Who’s favored to win each state?
Number of electoral votes and the probability of a Democratic or Republican win in each state. Outlined states are most likely to give the winner their 270th Electoral College vote.
Hover over a state to see its forecast
State Name
XX EVs
Chance of a win
XX out of 100 Harris win
XX out of 100 Trump win
Solid D
≥98 in 100%
Likely D
≥75 in 100%
Lean D
≥60 in 100%
Toss-up
Both <60 in 100%
Lean R
≥60 in 100%
Likely R
≥75 in 100%
Solid R
≥98 in 100%
Chance of a win based on 538’s forecast
Likeliest tipping-point states
Maine and Nebraska’s congressional districts are shown separately because those states split their Electoral College votes, allotting two to the statewide winner and one to the winner of each district.
What are the closest races?
Use the table below to sort states by name, forecasted margin of victory or two different metrics of how much influence they have over the outcome.
A state’s tipping-point chance is the probability it will give the Electoral College winner their 270th electoral vote. The Voter Power Index (VPI) is a relative measure of how likely an individual voter in that state is to determine the outcome of the election.
Median
95% of outcomes fall in this range
State ▲ ▼
Forecasted margin of victory ▲ ▼
Vote share
VPI ▲ ▼
Tipping point ▲ ▼
State ▲ ▼
Forecasted margin of victory ▲ ▼
A state’s tipping-point chance is the probability it will give the Electoral College winner their 270th electoral vote. The Voter Power Index (VPI) is a relative measure of how likely an individual voter in that state is to determine the outcome of the election.
What does the path to 270 look like?
Our “snake” chart orders the states by forecasted margin of victory. Scroll to the left or right to see uncompetitive states; more contested states are in the middle. Bigger segments mean more Electoral College votes.
Zoom out
How the popular vote translates into electoral votes
This graph shows the national popular vote margin and Electoral College margin in every model simulation. It shows you how often a candidate wins the Electoral College while losing the popular vote.
✓
✓
What do the polls or fundamentals alone say?
Our forecast is based on a combination of the polls and various economic and political variables we call the “fundamentals.” This chart shows how we get from the polls today to a forecast for Election Day.
Median
95% of outcomes fall in this range
Margin of victory
Polling averages
Polling averages
Polling average
The state of public opinion today, according only to 538’s average of national polls.
Adjusted polling average
The national polling average adjusted for results of state polls and the effects of party conventions.
Forecast components
Weight
Forecast of polling average on Election Day
The adjusted polling average with uncertainty intervals that account for potential movement in the race between now and Election Day. This does not account for the chance that the polls systematically underestimate one candidate.
00
Fundamentals-only forecast
What our fundamentals model alone would predict the popular vote margin to be.
00
Full forecast
Our final forecast of the popular vote, based on a weighted average of the polls and fundamentals using the weights above. This accounts for the chance that the polls systematically underestimate one candidate.
Forecast components may not exactly add up to full forecast because of rounding and random sampling. (When combining the components, we take a random sample of simulations from each, and they may not exactly match the full sample of simulations.)
Unusual and not-so-unusual scenarios
The probability of each outcome below, according to our simulations.
| Harris wins an Electoral College landslide (350+ electoral votes) | 22 out of 100 |
| Trump wins an Electoral College landslide (350+ electoral votes) | 7 out of 100 |
| Harris wins the Electoral College with <350 electoral votes | 32 out of 100 |
| Trump wins the Electoral College with <350 electoral votes | 36 out of 100 |
| Harris wins the national popular vote | 68 out of 100 |
| Trump wins the national popular vote | 32 out of 100 |
| Harris wins the national popular vote by 10+ percentage points | 17 out of 100 |
| Trump wins the national popular vote by 10+ percentage points | 4 out of 100 |
| Harris wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College | 13 out of 100 |
| Trump wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College | <1 out of 100 |
| No candidate wins a majority of Electoral College votes | <1 out of 100 |
| Every state votes for the same party that it did in 2020 | <1 out of 100 |
| Election is decided by a recount (winner's margin is <0.5% in a decisive state) | 6 out of 100 |
| Election is decided by a smaller margin than the vote share for third-party candidates | <1 out of 100 |
| Harris wins at least one state Biden didn't win in 2020 | 56 out of 100 |
| Trump wins at least one state he didn't win in 2020 | 77 out of 100 |
Credits
Forecast model
Quantitative editing
Content editing
Project management
Sources: American National Election Studies, The American Presidency Project at the University of California Santa Barbara, Ballotpedia, Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives, Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, Federal Election Commission, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Our Campaigns, polls, The Roper Center, state election websites, U.S. Census Bureau, University of Michigan Survey Research Center, VoteSmart
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